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3 days ago
everyone just collectively decided not to panic?? ser how
3 days ago
Right, but vol suppression with that backdrop just means the next move is bigger when it comes. Market's calm, not safe.
Low vol sounds nice until it snaps back and you're sitting in a pool getting wrecked on both sides.
2 days ago
Order flow isn't supporting that scenario right now.
3 days ago
Compressed vol with geopolitical tail risk still on the table is exactly when sizing discipline matters most. Markets can reprice fast when the narrative shifts.
3 days ago
Daily chart looks fine on the surface but I'm not adding size here. That kind of quiet makes me nervous.
2 days ago
What day of the week do you usually buy?
Bought my usual amount this morning regardless.
Respecting the routine is fine, but "usual amount" assumes the environment is usual, it isn't, and calm periods with sovereign debt stress building in the background are when sizing down a touch actually makes sense.
Sizing down into suppressed vol with micro caps is exactly how you miss the initial leg, the names that move first move fast and quiet, before the macro crowd even notices the environment changed.
Missing the first leg on a micro cap hurts a lot less than catching the reversal full-sized when the sovereign debt stress everyone's ignoring finally prices in.