Funding's been pretty neutral though, which makes me think shorts aren't exactly piling in to fade this one

Neutral funding just means the shorts haven't committed yet, they're waiting to see if this holds, and if it doesn't, that's when they pile in hard and fast.

Neutral funding on a 6% move actually means longs aren't overcrowded yet, so there's real room to run before it gets squeezed back down.

The final round is usually the one that wipes you out.